Cataraqui Conservation Issues Watershed Conditions Statement

Cataraqui Conservation is advising residents of the potential for flooding from expected higher-than-normal springtime water levels, and the need to exercise caution near watercourses as water levels and flows begin increasing in the coming days.

Weather Situation

A multi-day period of warmth is approaching, with air temperatures forecast to stay consistently above zero starting Friday, March 6, possibly exceeding 10 degrees C on Saturday, March 7.

There is uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of expected rainfall.

2 to 11 mm of rain or freezing rain is forecast for Thursday, March 5 and Friday, March 6. Another 4 to 38 mm of rain is forecast for Saturday, March 7. Long-range forecasts are currently suggesting additional significant amounts of rainfall for Tuesday, March 10 and Wednesday, March 11.

Higher than average temperatures are expected to persist with daytime highs approaching or exceeding 10 degrees C on multiple days next week before temperatures are forecast to drop below zero again Thursday, March 12.

Conditions

Many streamflows and lake levels are currently below normal due to a lack of mid-winter melts and rainfall events. The snowpack, however, contains 81mm of water equivalent, on average (two times normal for this time of year). Some locales have over 100mm (over two and a half times normal).

Responding to the high snowpack, Water Managers have been increasing discharge from managed lakes and targeting lower water levels to prepare for greater inflows from snowmelt runoff and combined runoff from rainfall events. Water management cannot prevent flooding. It seeks to balance negative impacts, as much as possible, as excess water moves through the system. Target water levels generally trend upward through March to prepare for the summer recreation season.

Risks

The spring freshet (snowmelt) period is expected to begin on Friday, March 6 and accelerate on Saturday, March 7, causing water level and flow increases on inland lakes and streams.

Smaller, more responsive watercourses could rise quickly and produce elevated levels as early as Saturday, March 7 or early Sunday, March 8. Larger watercourses and lakes respond more slowly, continuing to rise for days. Additional runoff from snowmelt during the warm temperatures next week could drive levels higher, especially if combined with additional rainfall. Runoff will be enhanced where frozen ground conditions exist.
Widespread flooding is NOT expected at this time. However, higher than normal springtime inundation of low-lying areas is expected. Localized roadway inundation is possible where drainage infrastructure is overwhelmed and at some creek crossings. If you witness flooding and/or require assistance, your first point of contact is the local municipality.

The consistently cold temperatures this winter have resulted in thicker ice cover on lakes and streams. Ice cover will weaken and may begin to break up and move leading to possible localized ice jam flooding, especially in areas with a history of ice jamming.

Cataraqui Conservation is urging caution around all dams (inflow and outflow channels) and fast-flowing watercourses. Respect the hazards in these areas by obeying all warning signs, and keep away from booms, buoys and barriers. Stay well back from the water’s edge above and below dams and hydroelectric stations. Creek banks and lake shorelines may be slippery, increasing the chance of falling in.

Ice conditions will deteriorate rapidly during warmer temperatures. Cataraqui Conservation does not measure ice thickness for advising the public about ice conditions for recreational activities. Ice conditions can vary considerably from one waterbody to the next and within a single waterbody. No ice is without some risk. Visit lifesaving.org for ice safety information.

Staff will continue to monitor conditions and forecasts and will update statements as needed. This Watershed Conditions Statement will remain in effect until (or updated before) Wednesday, March 18, 2026, at 11:59 PM.

For up-to-date flooding information, please visit our flood forecasting and information page at https://cataraquiconservation.ca/pages/flood